Historical
Backtest

SIXRX (SIX Return Index) measures the total return of the Stockholm Stock Exchange including reinvested dividends. Unlike OMXS30, which only tracks price changes of the 30 largest companies, SIXRX captures what an investor actually earned.

Dividends typically contribute 2–4% annually to total returns. Ignoring them significantly underestimates long-term equity performance. SIXRX has been published since 1901, making it one of the longest equity return series in the world.

No. Historical returns are not a forecast. Markets can behave very differently in the future due to structural changes in the economy, demographics, and technology.

But history does teach useful lessons: markets recover from crashes (though it can take years), diversification reduces volatility, and a longer time horizon dramatically reduces the risk of negative returns.

Nominal returns are the raw percentage change in your portfolio. Real returns are adjusted for inflation (CPI), showing the change in actual purchasing power.

For example, if your portfolio grew 10% but inflation was 3%, your real return was about 7%. Over long periods, the difference is dramatic: 7% nominal compounded over 30 years turns 100 kr into 761 kr, but 4% real only turns it into 324 kr in today's money.

The ISK model applies the current schablonskatt (1.07% per year on values above 300 000 kr) retroactively to the entire period. In reality, ISK was introduced in 2012, and the schablon rate has varied year to year.

This simplification shows how the ISK tax drag would have cost over different historical periods. For comparison, the capital gains (kapitalvinst) model applies 30% tax only on total gains at exit – no annual drag but a larger hit at the end.

For most long-term investors with returns above ~3.5%, ISK is more tax-efficient.

Swedish equities have experienced several severe drawdowns since 1970. The IT bubble collapse (2000–2002) was the worst in this dataset: the Stockholm market fell roughly 65% from peak to trough over about 30 months. The global financial crisis (2008–2009) saw a drop of around 50% in under 18 months. The Swedish banking crisis (1990–1992) caused a contraction of around 45%.

In every case the market recovered and reached new highs. From the 2002 trough, Swedish equities returned to their peak in roughly 5 years. The 2008–2009 trough recovered in about 4 years. The key variable is time horizon: an investor who held through each crash ended up better off than one who moved to cash. Use this tool to select different start years and see how a portfolio started just before each crash would have developed over 10 or 20 years.

Two investors saving the same amount for the same number of years can end up with very different outcomes depending purely on when they started. This is called sequence of returns risk. A poor market in the early years reduces the base that compound growth operates on for all subsequent years.

Someone who started investing in 1998 faced the IT crash within two years. Someone who started in 2003, just after the trough, rode the following bull market for five years before the 2008 crisis. The same 10-year holding period, completely different outcomes.

This is why locking onto one expected return figure is misleading. Try different start years above to see the range of realistic outcomes. For forward-looking projections, the FIRE calculator runs Monte Carlo simulations to model this uncertainty explicitly.

A few principles help translate historical data into planning inputs. Use real (inflation-adjusted) returns, not nominal. The long-run real return on Swedish equities has been around 6–8% per year since 1970. A conservative planning assumption of 5–7% real is reasonable for a diversified equity portfolio.

Look at the range, not just the average. The worst 20-year real return in this dataset looks very different from the best. Build your plan around a scenario that holds up under bad conditions.

Combine backward and forward tools. This backtest shows what actually happened. The FIRE calculator uses your assumptions to project forward, and the compound interest calculator lets you vary the return to see how sensitive your outcome is to the assumption you choose.

Swedish equity has historically delivered strong returns, but holding only Swedish stocks means concentration risk. Sweden is a small, export-heavy economy with a stock market dominated by industrials, financials, and pharmaceuticals. Events that hit those sectors can affect a Swedish-only portfolio more severely than a global one.

SIXRX has also been notably volatile: the heavy weight of Ericsson in the index amplified Swedish losses well beyond most other markets during the IT bubble. A globally diversified fund covering thousands of stocks smooths out country-specific risks.

Many Swedish financial advisors recommend a core global index fund (covering MSCI World or similar) rather than a Sweden-only position. You can explore the fee impact of different fund choices using the fund fee calculator.